پیوندهای مفید
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 21 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 372 |
| تعداد مقالات | 3,875 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 5,261,594 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 3,517,968 |
Impact of Climate Change on Meteorological Parameters Using the CMIP6 Model | ||
| مجله پژوهش های خشکسالی و تغییراقلیم | ||
| دوره 3، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 12، اسفند 1404، صفحه 1-22 اصل مقاله (1.06 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22077/jdcr.2025.9386.1141 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Ebrahim Nohani* 1؛ Hamidreza Babaali2؛ Reza Dehghani3 | ||
| 1Department of Civil Engineering, Materials and Energy Research Center, Dez.C., Islamic Azad University, Dezful, Iran. | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Khorramabad branch, Iran | ||
| 3PhD in Water Science and Engineering, Soil and Water Conservation Research Section, Lorestan Provincial Research Center for Agriculture and Natural Resources, Areeo, Khorramabad, Iran. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Human society and the environment face significant challenges due to climate change. Climate change is predicted to cause an increase in global surface temperatures. These changes do not occur uniformly across the globe, making it necessary to examine them at a regional level. Investigating and evaluating these changes in each region is essential for a more accurate understanding of future challenges and related planning. Therefore, this research investigates the impact of climate change on meteorological parameters in the Khorramabad plain, located in Lorestan province, using the CanESM2.0 climate prediction model, in accordance with the CMIP6 sixth assessment report. The study utilizes temperature and precipitation data recorded from 2002 to 2022. Subsequently, based on designed emission scenarios—including the optimistic SSP1-2.6, the intermediate SSP2-4.5, and the pessimistic SSP5-8.5 scenarios—the future atmospheric conditions for a twenty-year period (2022-2042) were predicted. The results indicate that CanESM2.0 performs well in simulating temperature parameters but has less capability in simulating precipitation. The results also show that the simulated temperature under the SSP1-2.6 emission scenario increases in all months during the future period (2022-2042) compared to the baseline period. The average precipitation in the future period does not show a specific pattern for the three models used. Overall, the results of this research can contribute to future water resource management, the creation of effective programs to combat climate change, and provide a basis for informed decision-making and appropriate planning. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Climate Change؛ Khorramabad؛ Simulation؛ General Circulation Model | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Annan, J.D. and Hargreaves, J.C. (2011). Understanding the CMIP3 Multimodel Ensemble. Journal of Climate. 24, 4529–4538.https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3873.1 Ashraf, S., Nazemi, A., AghaKouchak, A. (2021). Anthropogenic drought dominates groundwater depletion in Iran. Scientific Reports.11(1),1–10.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88522-y Cruz González, A., Arteaga-Ramirez, R., Soria-Ruiz, J. Sanchez Cohen, I., Monterroso Rivas, A.I. and Quevedo, A. (2025). Climate change projections in temperature and precipitation using cmip6 in Central Mexico. Theoretical and Applied Climatology.156, 97 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05345-3 Dehghani, R., Totabi Poudeh, H., Izadi, Z. (2022).The effect of climate change on groundwater level and its prediction using modern meta-heuristic model.Groundwater for Sustainable Development. 16(3), 822-845.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2021.100702 Fazeli Khiavi, A., Salahi, B., & Goodarzi, M. (2020). Assessment effects of climate change on changes in potential evapotranspiration in the Moghan Plain by RCPs. Engineering management. 12(4), 977-993. DOI: 10.22092/ijwmse.2019.126245.1649 Feyissa, T.A., Demissie, T.A., Saathoff, F. and Gebissa, A. (2024). Hydrological responses projection to the potential impact of climate change under CMIP6 models scenarios in Omo River Basin, Ethiopia. Results in Engineering. 23, 102-122.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2024.102708 Ghazi, B., Dutt, S., Torabi Haghighi, A. (2023). Projection of future meteorological droughts in Lake Urmia Basin Iran. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment.196, 155-172. 10.1007/s10661-023-12181-x Hosseini, R., Takemura, A. and Hosseini, A. (2015). Non-linear time-varying stochastic models for agroclimate risk assessment. Environmental and Ecological Statistics. 22(2), 227–246.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-014-0295-2 2021. Climate change 2021 the physical science basis, AR6, Summary for policymakers. 6(2),655-672. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896. Kouman, K. D., Komlavi, A., Kouadio, B.H., Kabo-bah, A.T., Moctar, D., Siabi, E.K. and Mensah, J.K. (2024). Assessment of climate change in the North-East Region of Côte d’Ivoire: future precipitation, temperature, and meteorological drought using CMIP6 models. Cogent Engineering, 11(1), 234-252.https://doi.org/10.1080/23311916.2024.2345506 Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G.A., Moss, R., Riahi, K. and Sanderson, B.M. (2016). The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development. 9, 3461– 3482.https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016. Nateghi, S., Rafiiei sardooi, E., Azareh, A., and Soleimani Sardoo, F. (2022). Predicting future changes in potential evapotranspiration based on RCP scenarios in Halilrood Watershed. Watershed Engineering and Management. 13(4), 769-780. DOI: 10.22092/ijwmse.2021.353294.1874 O’Neill, B., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D., Van Ruijven, B., Van Vuuren, D., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., Levy. and Solecki, W. (2017). The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change, 42(1), 169-180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004 Riahi, K., Van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., & Lutz, W. (2017). The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change. 42, 68-153. DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009 Semenov, M.A. and Stratonovitch, P. (2015). Adapting wheat ideotypes for climate change: accounting for uncertainties in CMIP5 climate projections. Climate Research. 65, 123–139.10.3354/cr01297 Semenov,M., Stratonovitch,P. (2010). Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts. Climate Research . 41, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5705 Shahi, S., Hosseini, K. and Mousavi, S.F. (2024). Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Temperature and Precipitation using CMIP6 models (case study: Damghan, Iran). Journal of Hydraulic and Water Engineering. 1(2), 163-177.10.22044/jhwe.2024.14150.1034 Souvignet, M., Heinrich, J.(2011). Statistical downscaling in the arid Central Andes: uncertainty analysis of multi-model simulated temperature and precipitation. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 106, 229-242 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0430-z Waha, K., Krummenauer, L., Adams, S., Aich, V., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., Marcus, R. (2017). Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups. Regional Environmental Change . 17, 1623–1638.10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2 Yang, X., Zhou, B., Xu, Y. and Han, Z. (2021). CMIP6 Evaluation and Projection of Temperature and Precipitation over China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 38, 817-830.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-0351-4
| ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 169 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 126 |
||
نماد الکترونیک
سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب