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rajabi, Mohammadreza, Khozeymehnezhad, Hossein, Nazeri Tahroudi, Mohammad. (1404). Analysis of Long-Term Changes in Hydro-Climatic Components (Case Study: Maroun Sub-Basin). , (), -. doi: 10.22077/jwhr.2026.10877.1198
Mohammadreza rajabi; Hossein Khozeymehnezhad; Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi. "Analysis of Long-Term Changes in Hydro-Climatic Components (Case Study: Maroun Sub-Basin)". , , , 1404, -. doi: 10.22077/jwhr.2026.10877.1198
rajabi, Mohammadreza, Khozeymehnezhad, Hossein, Nazeri Tahroudi, Mohammad. (1404). 'Analysis of Long-Term Changes in Hydro-Climatic Components (Case Study: Maroun Sub-Basin)', , (), pp. -. doi: 10.22077/jwhr.2026.10877.1198
rajabi, Mohammadreza, Khozeymehnezhad, Hossein, Nazeri Tahroudi, Mohammad. Analysis of Long-Term Changes in Hydro-Climatic Components (Case Study: Maroun Sub-Basin). , 1404; (): -. doi: 10.22077/jwhr.2026.10877.1198

Analysis of Long-Term Changes in Hydro-Climatic Components (Case Study: Maroun Sub-Basin)

Water Harvesting Research
مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 04 اسفند 1404
نوع مقاله: Research Paper
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22077/jwhr.2026.10877.1198
نویسندگان
Mohammadreza rajabi1؛ Hossein Khozeymehnezhad* 2؛ Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi3
1Ph.D. Student, Department of Water Engineering, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran.
2Associate professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran.
3Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran.
چکیده
This research investigates the trends and changes in the statistical distribution of climatic parameters (the warm days index, TX90p, and precipitation) and hydrological parameters (streamflow discharge) in the Maroun basin over a 50-year period (1971-2020). The Mann-Kendall test was employed to identify trends, and the Pettitt test was used to determine the timing of abrupt changes. The results indicated that the TX90p index exhibits a statistically significant increasing trend (p-value = 0.018), with a change point in the year 1995, following which its mean value increased by 57%. Although the decreasing trends in precipitation and discharge were not statistically significant at the 95% level, the Pettitt test identified an abrupt change in both parameters in the year 2008. A comparison of the statistical distribution of the data before and after the change points, using Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), and location tests, confirmed that not only the central tendency but also the shape and dispersion of these parameters have changed significantly. Specifically, the mean precipitation and discharge decreased by 28% and 46%, respectively, while their standard deviations also decreased by 38% and 52%, respectively. These findings collectively indicate a shift in the regional climate pattern towards warmer and drier conditions, which has serious implications for water resources management.
کلیدواژه‌ها
Extreme Temperature؛ Precipitation؛ Thermal Index؛ Trend Change
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