پیوندهای مفید
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 22 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 354 |
| تعداد مقالات | 3,735 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 4,940,272 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 3,313,380 |
Impact of Climate Change on River Discharge and Groundwater Level Using Copula Functions (Case Study: Siminehrood River Basin, Iran) | ||
| Water Harvesting Research | ||
| دوره 8، شماره 2، 2025، صفحه 339-355 اصل مقاله (999.23 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22077/jwhr.2026.11000.1201 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Fahimeh Sharifan1؛ Yousef Ramezani* 2؛ Mahdi Amirabadizadeh2؛ Carlo De Michele3 | ||
| 1PhD Graduate, Department of Water Engineering, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran. | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran. | ||
| 3Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| The aim of this research is to simulate and predict the groundwater level in the Siminehrood River Basin, which is situated south of Lake Urmia, Iran. This simulation was conducted using copula functions while accounting for changes in river discharge influenced by climate change. A total of 26 large-scale CMIP6 models were utilized in this study. Precipitation data were downscaled and simulated using the LARS WG 7.0 model. Subsequently, precipitation data for both the baseline period (1988-2018) and the future period (2031-2050) were predicted for three scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 through a weighted average method. Following the simulation and prediction of precipitation in the Siminehrood River Basin, copula functions were employed to simulate and predict both river discharge and groundwater levels. Prior to fitting the copula function, correlations between pair of parameters precipitation-river discharge and river discharge-groundwater level were examined using Kendall's tau coefficient; correlation values obtained were 0.43 for precipitation-river discharge and 0.44 for river discharge-groundwater level. After selecting marginal distributions and examining these correlations, ten different copula functions were fitted to each pair of parameters in order to identify the most suitable model among them. The results from predicting precipitation related to climate change indicated that annual precipitation under all three scenarios would decrease compared to the measured precipitation. Annual precipitation reductions were projected to be 5.1 mm, 31.5 mm, and 34.8 mm under the scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Analysis through copula functions revealed that the Clayton copula provided optimal performance when creating a joint distribution for these pair of parameters during simulation phases concerning river discharge as well as groundwater levels and its accuracy was validated based on evaluation criteria including NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency), RMSE (root mean square error), and R² (coefficient of determination). Furthermore, it was concluded that reductions in annual precipitation would lead to decreases in annual river discharge ranging from 2.9 m³/s to 6.6 m³/s alongside an annual drop in groundwater levels estimated between 0.3 m and 1.5 m. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Climate change؛ Copula functions؛ Downscaling؛ Marginal distribution functions؛ Siminehrood River | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Abbas, A., Ullah, S., Ullah, W., Waseem, M., Dou, X., Zhao, C., ... & Ali, G. (2022). Evaluation and projection of precipitation in Pakistan using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations. International Journal of Climatology, 42(13), 6665-6684.
Abdolalizadeh, F., Mohammad Khorshiddoust, A., & Jahanbakhsh, S. (2023). Projection of the future outlook of temperature and precipitation in Urmia Lake basin by the CMIP6 models. Physical Geography Research, 55(1), 95-112.
Abghari, H., & Erfanian, M. (2023). Quantifying the Effects of Climate Change on Simineh River Discharge in Lake Urmia Basin. International Journal of New Findings in Engineering, Science and Technology, 1(1), 15-25.
Ansari, S., Dehban, H., Zareian, M., & Farokhnia, A. (2022). Investigation of temperature and precipitation changes in the Iran's basins in the next 20 years based on the output of CMIP6 model. Iranian Water Researches Journal, 16(1), 11-24.
Bai, Y., Wang, Y., Chen, Y., & Zhang, L. (2020). Probabilistic analysis of the controls on groundwater depth using Copula Functions. Hydrology Research, 51(3), 406-422.
Chen, L., Guo, S., Chen, L., & Guo, S. (2019). Copula-based flood frequency analysis. Copulas and Its Application in Hydrology and Water Resources, 39-71.
Chen, W., Jiang. Z., & Li, L. (2011). Probabilistic projections of climate change over China under the SRES A1B scenario using 28 AOGCMs. Journal of Climate. 24(17): 4741-4756.
Chu, Z., Guo, J., & Zhao, J. (2017). Impacts of future climate change on agroclimatic resources in Northeast China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 27, 1044-1058.
Dastourani, M., & Nazeri Tahroudi, M. (2022). Toward coupling of groundwater drawdown and pumping time in a constant discharge. Applied Water Science, 12(4), 74.
De Michele, C., & Salvadori, G. (2003). A generalized Pareto intensity‐duration model of storm rainfall exploiting 2‐copulas. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 108(D2).
Dunning, C. M., Black, E., & Allan, R. P. (2018). Later wet seasons with more intense rainfall over Africa under future climate change. Journal of Climate, 31(23), 9719-9738.
Estoque, R. C., Ooba, M., Togawa, T., & Hijioka, Y. (2020). Projected land-use changes in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Insights and implications. Ambio, 49, 1972-1981.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., & Taylor, K. E. (2016). Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(5), 1937-1958.
Gebisa, B. T., Dibaba, W. T., & Kabeta, A. (2023). Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future climate change projections in the Baro River Basin. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 14(8), 2680-2705.
Khashei‐Siuki, A., Shahidi, A., Ramezani, Y., & Nazeri Tahroudi, M. (2021). Simulation of potential evapotranspiration values based on vine copula. Meteorological Applications, 28(5), e2027.
Li, X., Fang, G., Wen, X., Xu, M., & Zhang, Y. (2022). Characteristics analysis of drought at multiple spatiotemporal scale and assessment of CMIP6 performance over the Huaihe River Basin. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 41, 101103.
Nazeri Tahroudi, M., Khashei Siuki, A., & Ramezani, Y. (2019). Redesigning and monitoring groundwater quality and quantity networks by using the entropy theory. Environmental monitoring and assessment, 191, 1-17.
Nazeri Tahroudi, M., Mirabbasi, R., Ramezani, Y., & Ahmadi, F. (2022a). Probabilistic assessment of monthly river discharge using copula and OSVR approaches. Water Resources Management, 36(6), 2027-2043.
Nazeri Tahroudi, M., Ramezani, Y., De Michele, C., & Mirabbasi, R. (2021a). Determination of optimum two-dimensional copula functions in analyzing groundwater changes using meta heuristic algorithms. Irrigation Sciences and Engineering, 44(1), 93-109.
Nazeri Tahroudi, M., Ramezani, Y., De Michele, C., & Mirabbasi, R. (2021b). Flood routing via a copula-based approach. Hydrology Research, 52(6), 1294-1308.
Nazeri Tahroudi, M., Ramezani, Y., De Michele, C., & Mirabbasi, R. (2022b). Application of copula functions for bivariate analysis of rainfall and river flow deficiencies in the Siminehrood River Basin, Iran. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 27(11), 05022015.
Nelsen, R. B. (2006). An Introduction to Copulas. Springer, New York. MR2197664, 18.
Qin, J., Su, B., Tao, H., Wang, Y., Huang, J., & Jiang, T. (2021). Projection of temperature and precipitation under SSPs-RCPs Scenarios over northwest China. Frontiers of Earth Science, 15, 23-37.
Rivera, J. A., & Arnould, G. (2020). Evaluation of the ability of CMIP6 models to simulate precipitation over Southwestern South America: Climatic features and long-term trends (1901–2014). Atmospheric Research, 241, 104953.
Rogelj, J., Popp, A., Calvin, K. V., Luderer, G., Emmerling, J., Gernaat, D., ... & Tavoni, M. (2018). Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 C. Nature climate change, 8(4), 325-332.
Sharifan F, Ramezani Y, Amirabadizadeh M, De Michele C. (2024). Selection of the Best Copula Function in Bivariate Analysis of Water Resources Components (Case study: Siminehrood River Basin, Iran). Water Harvesting Research, 7(2):289-300.
Sharifan F, Ramezani Y, Amirabadizadeh M, De Michele C. (2025) Evaluating the impact of climate change on precipitation in the future period using CMIP6 models (case study: Siminehrood River Basin, Iran). Acta Geophysica, 1-16.
Shiru, M. S., Kim, J. H., & Chung, E. S. (2022). Variations in projections of precipitations of CMIP6 global climate models under SSP 2–45 and SSP 5–85. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 26(12), 5404-5416.
Sklar, M. (1959). Fonctions de répartition à n dimensions et leurs marges. Annales de l'ISUP, 8(3), 229-231.
Stouffer, R. J., Eyring, V., Meehl, G. A., Bony, S., Senior, C., Stevens, B., & Taylor, K. E. (2017). CMIP5 scientific gaps and recommendations for CMIP6. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98(1), 95-105.
Su, B., Huang, J., Gemmer, M., Jian, D., Tao, H., Jiang, T., & Zhao, C. (2016). Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for projected changes of climate in the Indus River Basin. Atmospheric Research, 178, 138-149.
Tahroudi, M. N., Ramezani, Y., De Michele, C., & Mirabbasi, R. (2020). Analyzing the conditional behavior of rainfall deficiency and groundwater level deficiency signatures by using copula functions. Hydrology Research, 51(6), 1332-1348.
Tian, J., Zhang, Z., Ahmed, Z., Zhang, L., Su, B., Tao, H., & Jiang, T. (2021). Projections of precipitation over China based on CMIP6 models. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 35, 831-848.
Wable, P. S., & Jha, M. K. (2018). Application of Archimedean copulas to the impact assessment of hydro-climatic variables in semi-arid aquifers of western India. Hydrogeology Journal, 26(1), 89-108.
Wilby, R. L., Tomlinson, O. J., & Dawson, C. W. (2003). Multi-site simulation of precipitation by conditional resampling. Climate Research, 23(3), 183-194.
You, Q., Liu, Y., & Liu, Z. (2018). Probability analysis of the water table and driving factors using a multidimensional copula function. Water, 10(4), 472. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 25 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 29 |
||
نماد الکترونیک
سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب