Scale-Bridging Teleconnections and Local Extremes: Comprehensive Evaluation across 140 Stations

Aghelpour P, Bahrami‑Pichaghchi H, Varshavian V, Norooz‑Valashedi R (2022) Evaluating the predictability of eight atmospheric–oceanic teleconnection signals in Iran. Advances in Space Research https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2022.10.047.

Ahmadi, M. M, Kamangar, M, Salimi, S, Hosseini, S. A. (2022) Trend and uncertainty associated with extreme temperature indices in Iran using stochastic and non‑stochastic estimation methods. Theoretical and Applied Climatology https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04138-w

Ahmadi, M, Zare, H, Tavakoli, A. (2023) Teleconnection controls on heatwaves across Iran. Frontiers in Earth Science, 11, 1235579. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1235579

Allen, J, Robertson, A. (2025) Atlantic SST gradients and Eurasian climate anomalies. Climate Dynamics, 54(3), 1123–. https://doi.org/10.1000/climdyn.2025.1123

Al Senafi, F. (2024) Climate variability of air temperature and its warming trends in the Arabian Gulf. Earth Systems and Environment. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-024-00395-z

Almaashi, A. K, Hasanean H. M, Labban A. H. (2024) Long‑term teleconnections between global circulation patterns and interannual variability of surface air temperature over Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Atmosphere, 15(11), 1310. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15111310

Arenas-Garcia, J, Petersen K. B, Camps-Valls, G, Hansen, L. K. (2013) Kernel multivariate analysis framework for supervised subspace learning: A tutorial on linear and kernel multivariate methods. IEEE Signal Processing Magazine, 30(4), 16-29. https://doi.org/10.1109/MSP.2013.2250591

Bazarafshan, U, B. Timuri, Gholami, Shekhari, Zamani. (2025). The application of integrated drought index based on Vine's joint in multivariate risk analysis. Drought and Climate Change Research Journal. https://doi.org/10.22077/jdcr.2025.9917.1161

Beasley J. T, Kramer A. K, Osborne S. R, Kenyon J. S. (2024) Sub seasonal variability of sea level pressure amplifies the relationship between land surface temperature and surface air temperature over mid‑latitude Eurasia. Geophysical Research Letters. 51(2), e2023GL069023. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL069023

Behnassi, M, El Haiba, M. (2024) Teleconnections and Middle Eastern heat extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 19(2), 024012. https://doi.org/10.1000/erl.2024.024012

Beverley, J. D, Maycock, A. C, Charlton‑Perez, A. J, O’Reilly, C. H, Gray, L. J, Scaife, A. A. (2024) Drivers of changes to the ENSO–Europe teleconnection under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 51(12), e2023GL107957. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107957

Bordbar, M. H, Nasrolahi, A, Lorenz, M, Moghaddam, S, Burchard, H. (2024) The Persian Gulf and Oman Sea: Climate variability and trends inferred from satellite observations. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 296, 108588. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2023.108588

Bromwich, D. H, Alexandra, S. E, Sheng-Hung, W, Xun, Z. (2024) Major artifacts in ERA5 2-m air temperature trends over Antarctica prior to and during the modern satellite era. Geophysical Research Letters 51: e2024GL111907. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111907

Bueso D, Piles M, Camps-Valls G. (2020) Nonlinear PCA for spatio-temporal analysis of Earth observation data. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 58(8), 5752-5763. https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2020.2969813

Camps-Valls, G, Bruzzone, L (Eds.) (2009). Kernel methods for remote sensing data analysis. John Wiley & Sons.

Casselman J. W, Jiménez‑Esteve B, Domeisen D. I. V. (2022) Modulation of the El Niño teleconnection to the North Atlantic by the tropical North Atlantic during boreal spring and summer. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3, 1077–1096. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1077-2022

Chen Y, Wang X, Chen S, Xue J, Gong, D. (2023) East Atlantic/West Russia pattern linked to extreme cold events over East Asia. Scientific Reports, 13, 1227. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-29934-w

Chen, H, Zhang, X, Wang, L, Shi, Y. (2024) Bridging the 'warm Arctic–cold Eurasia' pattern with planetary‑scale dynamics. Climate Dynamics. 62, 6419–6436. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07091-0

Chezgi,  Hamedi. (2023). Flood prioritization of Sarbaz river sub-basins using SWAT model. Drought and Climate Change Research Journal, 1(3), 73-86. https://doi.org/10.22077/jdcr.2023.6478.1026

Zheng, F., Liu, X., Chen, J., Huang, W., Sun, C., & Wang, H. (2023). Physical mechanism of winter temperature multidecadal variations in arid Central Asia: the role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Journal of Climate, 36(21), 7363-7377. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0946.1

Davoudi, H, Khosravi, M. (2025) Soil moisture feedbacks over the Iranian Plateau under teleconnection forcing. Climate Research, 72(1), 55–74. https://doi.org/10.1000/cr.2025.72.55

Denaxa, D, Korres, G, Flaounas, E, Hatzaki, M. (2024) Investigating extreme marine summers in the Mediterranean Sea. Ocean Science, 20, 433–461. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-433-2024

Deser, C, Simpson, I. R, McKinnon, K. A, Barnes, E. A. (2025) Response function analysis reveals Rossby‑wave origins of Northern Hemisphere teleconnections. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004987

Eggeling, J, Chuansi, G, Dong, A, Raul, C. C. (2024) Spatiotemporal link between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extreme heat, and thermal stress in the Asia–Pacific region. Scientific Reports, 14(1), 7448. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-58288-0

Fakhri (2024). Investigating the situation of Iran's temperature changes compared to the past long-term climatic standard period. Drought and Climate Change Research Journal, 2(3), 17-32. https://doi.org/10.22077/jdcr.2024.7392.1062

Falasca, F, Riechers, K, Kantz, H, Donner, R. V. (2024) Data‑driven dimensionality reduction and causal inference or spatiotemporal climate variability. Physical Review E, 109, 044202. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.109.044202

Feng, S, Zhang, R. (2023) North Pacific drivers of Eurasian surface air temperature variability. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(14), e2022JD037719. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037719

Finley, J, Brown, N, Kim, H, Newman, M. (2024) Quantifying downstream climate impacts of sea‑surface‑temperature clustering in the Eastern Pacific. Climate, 12(5), 71. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12050071                              

Francis, D, Fonseca, R. (2024) Recent and projected changes in climate patterns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Scientific Reports, 14, 10279. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-60976-w

Francis, D, Gehad, K, Al Suwaidi, A, Al Shehhi, A. (2024) Recent and projected changes in climate patterns in the MENA–Mediterranean region. Scientific Reports. 14, 11638. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-60976

Gao, Y, Sun, J, Li, F. (2024) East Pacific–North Pacific teleconnection and its temperature footprint. Climate Dynamics, 62, 8359–8376. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07011-8

Geng, X, Kug, J. S, Kosaka, Y. (2024) Future changes in the wintertime ENSO–NAO teleconnection under greenhouse warming. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7(1), 81. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00627-z

Góźdź O, Dussin R, Shaffer G (2024) The impact of interactive ocean dynamics on internal variations of Atlantic Sea‑surface temperature. Journal of Climate, 37(24), 4709–4730. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0578.1

Hatzaki, M, Di, C, Giorgia, C, John, P. (2023) Causal drivers of Mediterranean winter climate variability. Environmental Sciences Proceedings, 26(1), 155. https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2023026155

Horan, M. F, Hoell, A, Becker, E, Eischeid, J. (2024) Winter precipitation predictability in Central Southwest Asia from large‑scale climate dynamics. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 7, 94. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00594-5

Ibebuchi, C. C. (2023) Circulation patterns associated with trends in summer temperature variability over North America using rotated S‑mode principal component analysis. Scientific Reports, 13: 20020. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-39497-5

Kumar, N., Patel, P., Singh, S., & Goyal, M. K. (2023). Understanding non-stationarity of hydroclimatic extremes and resilience in Peninsular catchments, India. Scientific Reports, 13, 12524. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38771-w

Till, K, Swaminathan, R, Ceppi, P, Wilder, T. (2024) The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the North Atlantic. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105(3), E474–E485. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0209.1

Lee, J, Wang, S. Y. S, Son, S. W, Kim, D, Jeong, J. H, Kim, H, Yoon, J. H. (2024) Evolving winter atmospheric teleconnection patterns and their potential triggers across western North America. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7(1), 63. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00608-2

Liu, T, Chunzai, W, Jiao, Y, Xunshu, S, Jiayu, Z, Yonghan, W. (2024) Investigating the seasonal SST predictability in the Northern Tropical Atlantic Ocean in an ensemble prediction system. Climate Dynamics, 62(8), 7889–7907. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07312-0

Lopez, H, Simmons, A. J, Di Napoli, C, Hersbach, H, Dee, D. (2024) Major artifacts in ERA5 2‑m air temperature trends over land. Geophysical Research Letters, 51(14), e2024GL111907. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111907

Ma, P. L, Rasch, P. J, Zhang, K, Richter, J. H. (2023) Changes in global teleconnection patterns under global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenarios. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 23, 5835–5856. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5835-2023

Malik, A, Stenchikov, G, Mostamandi, S, Parajuli, S. (2024) Accelerated historical and future warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129(8), e2024JD041625. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041625

Mori, M, Nakamura, H, Watanabe, M, Taguchi, B. (2024) Northern Hemisphere winter atmospheric teleconnections driven by Rossby wave packets. Communications Earth & Environment, 5: 629. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01234-5

Nabat Quds, Chaos,  Preisasadat. (2025). Evaluation of climate models for simulation of temperature and precipitation: selection of the best model, sixth report, with multi-criteria decision-making method and performance criteria. Drought and Climate Change Research Journal. https://doi.org/10.22077/jdcr.2025.9112.1130

Najafi, M. S, Alizadeh Choobari, O. (2023) A new climate classification for Iran. Meteorological Applications 30(6): e2147. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2147

National Centers for Environmental Information. (2024) Monthly climate synoptic discussion – February 2024: Relationship of EPO and EP–NP. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/synoptic/202402

Nerantzaki, S. D., Papalexiou, S. M., Rajulapati, C. R., Clark, M. P. (2023). Nonstationarity in high and low-temperature extremes: Insights from a global observational data set by merging extreme-value methods. Earth’s Future, 11, e2023EF003506. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003506

Nie, W., Kumar, S. V., Getirana, A. (2024). Nonstationarity in the global terrestrial water cycle and its interlinkages in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121, e2403707121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2403707121

Nguyen, P, Kim, H, Lee, J. (2024) Rossby wave trains linking Atlantic variability to Eurasian climates. Geophysical Research Letters, 51(5), e2024GL123456. https://doi.org/10.1000/grl.2024.123456

Outten, S, Davy, R. (2024) Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 5, 753–762. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024

Park, H, Kim, S, Lee, S. (2023) The Pacific–North American pattern and Eurasian temperature extremes. Climate Dynamics, 61, 5123–5141. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06650-9

Petrova, D, Rodó, X, Koopman, S. J, Tzanov, V, Cvijanovic, I. (2024) The 2023/24 El Niño and the feasibility of long‑lead ENSO forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105(10), E1708–E1723. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0158.1

Qi, L, Zhang, Y, Chen, J. (2025) Extratropical influence of El Niño on the Northern Hemisphere circulation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 130(1), e2024JD041625. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041625

Rahimi, M, Alizadeh, A, Akbari, M. (2024) Teleconnection‑based predictability of temperature over the Middle East. Scientific Reports, 14, 20987. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-20987-3

Rahimi, R, Rahimi, M. (2019). Spatial and temporal analysis of climate change in the coming years and comparison of SDSM, LARS-WG and artificial neural network microscale methods (case study: Khuzestan province). Drought and Climate Change Research Journal. https://doi.org/10.22077/jdcr.2023.6996.1049

Reintges, A, Hermanson, L, Born, A, Knight, J. (2024) The subpolar North Atlantic mean state affects the response of the atmosphere to the NAO. Journal of Climate, 37(18), 3901–3921. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0628.1

Rezaei, A, Karami, K, Tilmes, S, Moore, J. C. (2023) Changes in global teleconnection patterns under global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenarios. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 23, 835–5856. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5835-2023

Rezaei, A, Karami, K, Tilmes, S, Moore, J. C. (2024) Future water storage changes over the Mediterranean, Middle East, and North Africa in response to global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention. Earth System Dynamics, 15, 91–108. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-91-2024

Ru, C, Li, J, Wu, Z, Liu. (2024) Sub seasonal variability of sea level pressure intensifies its relationship with surface air temperature over Eurasia. Climate Dynamics, 62, 5897–5912. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06941-8

Saeed, S, Kucharski, F, Almazroui, M. (2022) Impacts of mid‑latitude atmospheric circulation on winter temperature variability in the Arabian Peninsula. Climate Dynamics, 59(9–10), 2945–2962. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06215-5

Saini, R, Brenowitz, N, Henn, B. (2023) Atmospheric bias teleconnections: How historical observing practices still affect the circulation in weather and climate models. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 4, 833–857. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-833-2023

Shiozaki, T, Sugimoto, S, Takaya, K. (2024) Mechanisms linking Pacific climate variability to Eurasian heat extremes. Journal of Climate, 37(5), 1503–1522. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0421.1

Soci, C, Hersbach, H. S, Adrian, P, Paul, B. (2024) The ERA5 global reanalysis from 1940 to 2022. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150(753), 3951–3986. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4803

Song, Y, Sun, C, Li, J, Jin F. F. (2022) The dominant modes of spring land surface temperature over the Northern Hemisphere. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 127, e2021JD035720. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035720

Song, Y, Wang, L, Li, J, Sun, C. (2023) Influence of the late‑winter North Atlantic triple sea surface temperature on spring land surface temperature over western Eurasia. Journal of Climate 36(15), 4923–4941. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0846.1

Sun, C, Chen, W, Zuo, J, Xia, C. (2023) Influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on winter surface air temperature in arid Central Asia. Journal of Climate 36(21), 6857–6879. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0946.1

Tatlı, H. (2025) Spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation derived from ERA5 reanalysis (1940–2024) over the Mediterranean and Middle East: Insights from multifractal and nonlinear analyses. Environmental Earth Sciences 84, 12412. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-025-12412-z

Tang, Q, Sun, C, Ding, Q. (2024) Tropical Atlantic variability and downstream Rossby wave trains. Geophysical Research Letters, 51(9), e2024GLX. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GLX

Ullah, W, Alabduoli, K, Ullah, S, Al‑Ghamdi, S. G, Alhebsi, K, Almazroui, M, Assiri, M. E, Azeem, W, Abuelgasim, A, Hagan, D. F. T. (2024) Comparison of 2‑m surface temperature data between reanalysis and observations over the Arabian Peninsula. Atmospheric Research 311: 107725. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107725

Wang, B, Zuo, H, Qiao, F. (2024) Thermodynamic control of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Eurasian winter temperature. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 7. 100. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00648-2

Xu, H, Wang, T, Wang, H. (2024) The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation links decadal changes in precipitation and moisture between arid central Asia and the Asian monsoon region during the last millennium. Climate of the Past, 20, 107–119. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-107-2024

Yuan, X, Gao, Y, Zuo, H. (2024) Joint influence of the NAO and Scandinavian pattern on Eurasian temperature variability. Climate Dynamics, 62, 3451–3466. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07012-7

Yu, H, Zheng, F, Lu, R, Li, J, Chen, W, Wu, Z. (2024) Seasonal phase change of the North Atlantic Tripole sea‑surface temperature predicted by air–sea coupling. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7, 182. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00882-0

Zanchettin, D, Angelo, R. (2024) Accelerated North Atlantic surface warming reshapes the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Communications Earth & Environment, 5, 639. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01804-x

Zhang, Q, Chang, P, Fu, D, Yeager, S. G, Danabasoglu, G, Castruccio F, Rosenbloom, N. (2024) Enhanced Atlantic Meridional Mode predictability in a high‑resolution prediction system. Science Advances, 10(31), eado6298. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.ado6298