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پاسخ ابرناکی ایران به نوسانات دورپیوندی: مطالعهای بر ۱۳۶ ایستگاه سینوپتیک غربی | ||
| مجله پژوهش های خشکسالی و تغییراقلیم | ||
| دوره 3، ویژه نامه - شماره پیاپی 12، دی 1404، صفحه 59-80 | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22077/jdcr.2025.9514.1148 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| علیرضا سعادت مقدسی1؛ زهرا آقاشریعتمداری* 2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران. | ||
| 2دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| پدیدههای دورپیوندی بهعنوان الگوهای همبستگی دوربرد، اثرگذاری در مناطق برون حاره با رویکردهای نوین دادهکاوی دوباره پررنگ شدهاند. در این پژوهش نقش همزمان ۱۵ شاخص دورپیوندی بر ابرناکی ایران نرمال سازی و کمیسازی شده است. بدینمنظور میانگین ماهانه ابرناکی ۱۳۶ ایستگاه سینوپتیک کشور طی سالهای ۱۹۷۹–۲۰۲۳ بهکار رفت و با چارچوب Rock-PCA، همبستگیها با چرخش Varimax و چرخش بازتولیدپذیر RKHS (با اسپیرمن) در دو مقیاس ماهانه و سالانه استخراج شد. نقشههای ترکیبی در سه سطوح ۸۵۰، ۷۰۰ و ۵۰۰ هکتوپاسکال با استفاده از نرم افزار پایتون ترسیم گردید. بیشترین اثر سالانه متعلق به TNA بود ( ≈۶۰ ایستگاه ؛ r≈−0/49؛ p<0/05) و در مقیاس ماهانه NAO بر ۱۳۰ ایستگاه با میانگین r≈0/33 غالب بود. الگوهای مکانی با جابهجایی جت جنبحارهای، تغییر مسیر توفانها و انتقال رطوبت مدیترانه–دریای سرخ–خلیجفارس سازگار است؛ ترکیب NAO+/EAWR+ کمربند کاهش ابر بر اروپای غربی–میانی و افزایش آن بر قفقاز–کاسپین و بخشهایی از ایران را تقویت میکند. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| آنالیز ترکیبی؛ شاخصها؛ پوشش ابر؛ شرق اطلس؛ فلات ایران | ||
| مراجع | ||
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