Investigating Precipitation Changes and Meteorological Drought Characteristics with Climate Change Scenarios (Case Study: Sari-Qamish Sub-basin of Zarinehrood)

Samadian, Morteza; Asadi, Esmaeil; Ghorbani, Mohammad Ali; Ahmadi, Farshad

doi:10.22077/jwhr.2023.6786.1106

دانشگاه بیرجند

تعداد نشریات	21
تعداد شماره‌ها	314
تعداد مقالات	3,321
تعداد مشاهده مقاله	3,546,521
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله	2,591,226

	Investigating Precipitation Changes and Meteorological Drought Characteristics with Climate Change Scenarios (Case Study: Sari-Qamish Sub-basin of Zarinehrood)
Water Harvesting Research
دوره 6، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 9، خرداد 2023، صفحه 38-54 اصل مقاله (2.17 M)
نوع مقاله: Case Study
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22077/jwhr.2023.6786.1106
نویسندگان
Morteza Samadian¹؛ Esmaeil Asadi^* ²؛ Mohammad Ali Ghorbani³؛ Farshad Ahmadi⁴
¹Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
²Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
³Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
⁴Assistant Professor, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Faculty of Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
چکیده
Drought is one of the most important problems that humanity is facing today with effects intensifying and causing many problems in different regions due to climate change and the gradual increase in global warming in recent years. Knowing this phenomenon and managing it correctly can reduce the damage caused by it to some extent. In this study, in order to quantify the rainfall changes in the region from the rainfall data of Bukan, Saqez and Takab stations and based on the Standardized Precipitation Meteorological Drought Index (SPI) in the basic statistical period (1959-2020) and the future period (2020-2100). The CanESM2 model was used under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results of the survey in the basic statistical period showed that the change trend of SPI values is decreasing. Also, the average decrease of monthly rainfall in the future statistical period under the RCP8.5 scenario in Takab, Bukan and Saqez stations is about 18, 18 and 23%, respectively, and the change trend of the SPI index under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios is a significant decrease. And in the RCP2.6 scenario, it has an insignificant decrease. Obviously, with the current results and the lack of greenhouse gas management, more severe droughts will occur in the study area.
کلیدواژه‌ها
Climate change release scenarios؛ Meteorological drought؛ SPI index؛ Zarinehrood

مراجع
Ahmadi, F., Nazeri Tahroudi, M., Mirabbasi, R., Khalili, K., & Jhajharia, D. (2018). Spatiotemporal trend and abrupt change analysis of temperature in Iran. Meteorological Applications, 25(2): 314-321. Azizi, H., & Nejatian, N. (2022). Evaluation of the climate change impact on the intensity and return period for drought indices of SPI and SPEI (study area: Varamin plain). Water Supply, 22(4): 4373-4386. Behzadi, F., Wasti, A., Rahat, S. H., Tracy, J. N., & Ray, P. A. (2020). Analysis of the climate change signal in Mexico City given disagreeing data sources and scattered projections. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 27: 1006625. Belal, A. A. El-Ramady, H. R. Mohamed, E. S. & Saleh, A. M.(2014).Drought risk assessment using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 7(1), 35-53. Bong, C. H. J., & Richard, J. (2020). Drought and climate change assessment using standardized precipitation index (SPI) for Sarawak River Basin. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 11(4): 956-965. Danandeh Mehr, A., Sorman, A. U., Kahya, E., & Hesami Afshar, M. (2020). Climate change impacts on meteorological drought using SPI and SPEI: case study of Ankara, Turkey. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65(2): 254-268. Huang, Y. F., Ang, J. T., Tiong, Y. J., Mirzaei, M., & Amin, M. Z. M. (2016). Drought forecasting using SPI and EDI under RCP-8.5 climate change scenarios for Langat River Basin, Malaysia. Procedi Engineering, 154: 710-717. Jang, D. (2018). Assessment of meteorological drought indices in Korea using RCP 8.5 scenario. Water, 10(3), 283. Jasim, A. & Awchi, T.A. (2020). Regional Meteorological Drought Assessment in Iraq. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 13(7): 284. Javan, K. (2021). Investigation of meteorological drought in Urmia using SPI under climate change scenarios (RCP). Climate Change Research, 2(5): 81-94. Javan, Kh. (2020). Identification of hydrological drought trends in the Lake Urmia Basin. Hydrogeomorphology Journal. 7(25): 138-119. Kendall, M. G. (1963). The advanced theory of statistics: in 3 volumes. C. Griffin. Khalili, K., Tahoudi, M. N., Mirabbasi, R., & Ahmadi, F. (2016). Investigation of spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Iran over the last half century. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 30(4), 1205-1221. Khozeymehnezhad, H., & Tahroudi, M. N. (2019). Annual and seasonal distribution pattern of rainfall in Iran and neighboring regions, 12(8), 271. Kumar, S., Merwade, V., Kam, J., & Thurner, K. (2009). Streamflow trends in Indiana: effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains. Journal of Hydrology, 374(1-2), 171-183. Kundzewicz, Z.W. & Robson, A. (2000) Detecting Trend and Other Changes in Hydrological Data. World Climate Program Data and Monitoring. WMO/TD-No. 1013. Lee, S. H., Yoo, S. H., Choi, J. Y., & Bae, S. (2017). Assessment of the impact of climate change on drought characteristics in the Hwanghae Plain, North Korea using time series SPI and SPEI: 1981–2100. Water, 9(8), 579. Mann, H. B. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica. Journal of the Econometric Society, 245-259. McKee, T.B. Doesken, N.J. and Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, in Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, California, USA, 179-184. Mishra, AK. & Singh, VP. (2010). A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 391:202–216. Nazeri Tahroudi, M., & Shahidi, A. (2017). Evaluation of Gotvand Dam Construction Impacts on Time Series variability of water quality parameters. Iran-Water Resources Research, 13(3): 175-180. (In Persian) Nikbakht, J., & Hadeli, F. (2021). Comparison of SPI, RDI and SPEI indices for drought smonitoring under climate change conditions (Case study: Kermanshah station). Journal of Agricultural Meteorology, 9(1), 14-25. Onuşluel Gül, G., Gül, A., & Najar, M. (2022). Historical evidence of climate change impact on drought outlook in river basins: analysis of annual maximum drought severities through daily SPI definitions. Natural Hazards, 110(2), 1389-1404. Saadat, S. Khalili, D. Kamgar-Haghighi, A. A. & Zand-Parsa, S. (2013). Investigation of spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal streamflow droughts in a semi-arid region. Natural Hazards, 69(3): 1697-1720. Sen, PK. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau, Journal of the American statistical association, 63(324), 1379-1389. Tahroudi, MN., Siuki, AK., & Ramezani, Y. 2019. Redesigning and monitoring groundwater quality and quantity networks by using the entropy theory. Environmental monitoring and assessment, 191(4), 250. Theil, H. 1950. A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis, 3; confidence regions for the parameters of polynomial regression equations. Indagationes Mathematicae, 1(2), 467-482. Wilhite, D. A. Svoboda, M. D. & Hayes, M. J. (2007). Understanding the complex impacts of drought: A key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparedness. Water resources management, 21(5): 763-774. Won, J., & Kim, S. (2020). Future drought analysis using SPI and EDDI to consider climate change in South Korea. Water Supply, 20(8), 3266-3280.
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 197 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 262

نماد الکترونیک

سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب

پیوندهای مفید

آمار

Investigating Precipitation Changes and Meteorological Drought Characteristics with Climate Change Scenarios (Case Study: Sari-Qamish Sub-basin of Zarinehrood)