پیوندهای مفید
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 21 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 341 |
| تعداد مقالات | 3,608 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 4,595,368 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 3,063,037 |
Simulation of low flow using SWAT under climate change status | ||
| Water Harvesting Research | ||
| دوره 4، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 6، اسفند 2021، صفحه 191-209 اصل مقاله (1.76 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22077/jwhr.2022.4990.1050 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Bagher Ghermezcheshmeh* 1؛ massoud Goodarzi2؛ marzieh Hajimohammadi3 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed management institute, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (SCWMRI), AREEO, Tehran 13898-17611, Iran | ||
| 3Ph.D candidate, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| One of the climate change impacts is an increase in the severe drought frequencies. Recently, low flow frequency analysis has been considered in the study of hydrological drought. This study aims to forecast low flow by 2099 in the Kan River Basin in order to assess climate change impacts on low flow in this region. For this purpose, temperature and precipitation data were simulated by HadCM3 model using SDSM downscaling model under the scenarios A2 and B2 by 2099. Runoff simulation was estimated using SWAT while calibration and validation were implemented using the SWAT-CUP software and SUFI-2 algorithm. The optimal parameters obtained from monthly and daily calibration were projected via SUFI-2 algorithm. The results showed an increase in temperature but decrease in precipitation rate, which in the most pessimistic scenario, proves an increase in maximum temperature up to 4.2 °C and for the precipitation, a decrease down to 10.8% by 2099 is expected, as well. Furthermore, the accuracy analysis of the simulated runoff based on the monthly and daily calibration results showed a good fit between observed and simulated values. In fact, their correlation coefficient with the measured values differed less than 0.03. Meanwhile for maximum flow values, daily calibration led to a more accuracy. The results of runoff forecasts showed a decrease in runoff, which is expected for spring and summer however an increase would be for autumn and winter. Overall, a 15 to 21 percent reduction in runoff was projected by 2099. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Climate change؛ Hydrological drought؛ Discharge؛ SWAT model؛ Kan basin | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Abbaspour, K. C., 2011. User manual for SWAT-CUP4, SWAT calibration and uncertainty Analysis programs. Swiss federal institute of aquatic science and technology, Eawag, due bendorf, Switzerland from www.eawag.ch. Abbaspour, K. C., Yang, J., Maximov, I., Siber, R., Bonger, K., Mieleitner, J., Zobrist, J., Sirinivasan, R., 2006. Modelling hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT.J. Hydrol. 3332(4):413-430. Backlund, P., Schimel, D., Janetos, A., Hatfield, J., Ryan, M., Archer, S., Lettenmaier, D., 2008. Introduction. In: The effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Washington, DC., USA, 362 pp. Bajracharya, A., Bajracharya, S., Shrestha, A., Maharjan, S., 2017. Climate Change impact assessment on the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal. Sci. Total Environ. 625:837-848.10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.332 Dibike, B. Y., Coulibaly, P., 2006. Temporal neural networks for downscaling variability and extremes. Neural netw, 19(2):135-144. Eslamian, S. S., Zarei, A., Abrishamchi, A., 2004. Regional Estimation of Low Flows for Mazandaran River Basin. Journal of Water and Soil Science, 8 (1):27-38. Ghermezcheshmeh, B., 2014. Assessment of downscaling GCM models uncertainty by analyzed on temperature and precipitation case study: Urmia Lake basin, 2014, thesis deserted for PhD on climatology and Environmental planning, University of Tabriz faculty of geography, Tabriz, Iran, pp. 164. Ghermezcheshmeh, B., Haji Mohammadi, M., 2018a. Calibration SWAT model and determination of effective parameters in simulation KAN River discharge by using the Sufi-2 algorithm, first national conference on the use of soil and water assessment tools (SWAT) in the management of the country's water resources, Isfahan University of Technology, 15-16 May 2018. Ghermezcheshmeh, B., Haji Mohammadi, M., 2018b. Investigating the Effect of Digital Elevation Model Accuracy on Runoff Simulation Accuracy, Case study: Kan watershed, Third National Conference on Soil Conservation and Watershed Management, 14-15 May 2018. Ghermezcheshmeh, B., Haji Mohammadi, M., Azizian, A., 2016, Investigate the Accuracy of the SWAT Model in Low flow simulation, 6th Iranian National Water Resources Management Conference by University of Kurdistan. Ghermezcheshmeh, B., Rasuli, A., Rezaei B., Massah Bovani, A., Khorshiddust, A., 2014. Impact assessment of morpho-climatic parameters in accuracy of SDSM, journal of Watershed Engineering and Management, 6(2):155-164. Gholami, Sh., Nasiri, M., 2015. Simulation of Atrak River monthly discharge using SWAT model, Case study: Maraveh Tappeh watershed, Golestan province, journal of Watershed Engineering and Management, 7(2):126-135. Goodarzi, M., 2011. Assessing climate change impacts on surface water resources: a case study of upper Karkheh river catchment, thesis deserted for PhD on climatology and Environmental planning, University of Tabriz faculty of geography, Tabriz, Iran, pp. 187. Goodarzi, M., Hosseini, A., Mesgari, E., 2016. climate models, Azarkelk publishing co., Zanjan, Iran, pp. 271. Grusson, Y., Sun, X., Gascoin, S., Sauvage, S., Raghavan, S., Anctil, F., Sáchez-Pérez, J., 2015. Assessing the capability of the SWAT model to simulate snow, snow melt and streamflow dynamics over an alpine watershed. J. Hydrol. 531:574-588. Hajimohammadi, M., Azizian, A., Ghermezcheshmeh, B., 2015. a study on climate variability and downscaling results on urban and non-urban regions, 5th regional conference on climate change. Hajimohammadi, M., Azizian, A., Ghermezcheshmeh, B., 2018. Evaluation of the impact of climate change on runoff in Kan Watershed, journal of Watershed Engineering and Management, 10(2):144-156. IPCC., 2007. Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of the Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. www.ipcc.ch Li, D., Christakos, G., Ding, X., Wu, J., 2017. Adequacy of TRMM satellite rainfall data in driving the SWAT modelling of Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China). J. Hydrol. Massah Bavani, AR., 2006. Climate change risk assessment and its impact on water resources: A case study of Zayandehrud basin in Isfahan. Ph.D. thesis. Department of Water Engineering and Management. Faculty of Agriculture. Tarbiat Modares University. Iran Moriasi, D., Arnorld, J.G., Van Liew, M. W., Bingner, R. L., Harmel, R. D., Veith, T. L., 2007. Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations, Trans ASABE. 50(3):885-900. doi.org/10.13031/2013.23153. Morid, R., Delavar, M., Eagderi, S., Kumar, L., 2016. Assessment of climate change impacts on river hydrology and habitat suitability of Oxynoemacheilus bergianus. Case study: Kordan River, Iran. Hydrobiologia, 771:83-100. Santhi, C., Arnold, J. G., Williams, J. R., Dugas, W.A., Srinivasan, R., Hauck, L. M., 2001. Validation of the SWAT model on a large river basin with point and non-point sources. Water Resource. J. the American Water Resources Association, 37(5):1169-1188. Shrestha, N., Wang. J., 2017. Predicting Sediment yield and transport dynamics of a cold climate region watershed in changing climate. Sci. Total Environ, 625:1030-1045. Shrestha, S.,Ye Htut, A., 2016. Land Use and Climate Change Impact on the Hydrology of the Bago River Basin, Myanmar. Environ Model Assess. 21:819-833. Smaktin, V. U., 2001. Low Flow hydrological: overview. J. hydrol, 147-186. Van Liew, M. W., Arnold, J. G., Garbrecht, J. D., 2003. Hydrologic simulation on agricultural watersheds: choosing between two models. American society of agricultural on biological engineers. Transactions of ASAE. (American Society of Agricultural Engineers). 46(6): 1539-1151. doi.org/10.13031/2013.15643. Winchell, M., Srinivasan, R., Diluzio, M., Arnold, J., 2010. ArcSWAT Interface for SWAT2009, User’s GUIDE. Woldesenbet, T., Elajib, N., Ribbe, L., Heinrich, J., 2017. Catchment response to Climate and Land use Changes in the Upper Blue Nile sub-basins, Ethiopia. Sci. Total Environ.644:193-206. Xu, X., Wang, Y-C., Kalcic, M., Logsdon Muenich, R., Yang, Y.C. E., Scavia, D., 2017. Evaluating the impact of climate change on fluvial flood risk in a mixed-used watershed, Environmental Modeling & Software, 1-11. Xu, X., Wang, Y-C., Kalcic, M., Logsdon Muenich, R., Yang, Y.C.E., Scavia, D., 2017. Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Fluvial Flood Risk in a Mixed-Used Watershed. Environ. Modeling & Software, 122: 1-11. Yang, Z., Liu, Q., He, Yi. Luo, X., Zhang, X., 2016. Comparison of daily and sub-daily SWAT models for daily streamflow simulation in the Upper Huai River Basin of China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, 30:959-972.
| ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 619 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 518 |
||
نماد الکترونیک
سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب